Reopening Key Metrics

Below are the key metrics that the Metro COVID-19 Taskforce is considering as it determines when it is safe to begin reopening Nashville. Ideally, all metrics will be stable or improving before moving forward in the plan.

Transmission Rate

14-Day New Case Trend

Public Health Capacity

Testing Capacity

Hospital Capacity: Floor Beds

Hospital Capacity: ICU Beds

New Cases Per 100K Residents

7 Day Positive Test Rate

Key:     Green: Satisfactory     Yellow: Less Than Satisfactory     Red: Unsatisfactory 

Transmission Rate

The transmission rate is the rate at which infectious cases cause secondary or new cases in a population. A transmission rate of 1.0 means that each person who has the virus passes it to one other person. A transmission rate above a rate of 1.0 signals a spread; a rate below 1.0 signals the spread is slowing. The rate of transmission declining or remaining low is a critical to proceeding to each stage of reopening Metro.

Goal: Less Than 1.0 Transmission Rate
Current: 1.20 Transmission Rate (As of 10/24 at 9:30 a.m.)

Source: COVID Act Now

14-Day New Case Trend

Public health officials agree that each phase of the Roadmap for Reopening Nashville should begin only after 14 days of significant declines. Although most cases occur within 5-7 days of exposure, almost all are evident by 14 days. A sustained downward trend in cases over the course of the 14 days is critical to proceeding to each stage of reopening Metro.

Goal: Flat or Decreasing Trend in New Cases
Current: Increasing in New Cases (As of 10/24 at 9:30 a.m.)

Source: Metro Public Health Department

Public Health Capacity

Metro’s Public Health Capacity is defined by its ability to rapidly interview those who have tested positive for COVID-19, identify close contacts, and ensure that isolation and quarantine are effective. The Metro Department of Public Health needs resources to conduct rapid investigations and monitor cases and contacts effectively. Estimates of personnel needs for these tasks range from 4 to 15 contact investigators per 100,000 population. That translates to 28-105 investigators for Davidson County, along with similar numbers of case and contact monitors.

Goal: 28 – 105 Contact Investigators for Davidson County
Current: 125 Contact Investigators for Davidson County (As of 10/24 at 9:30 a.m.)

Source: Metro Public Health Department

Testing Capacity

Ensuring adequate diagnostic testing capacity and delivering rapid test results are a prerequisite for reopening Nashville. Nashville is currently able to conduct 5,000 tests a week, which is consistent with the common benchmark of 1 test per 100-150 residents per week. Adequate testing capacity is necessary to allow employers overseeing vulnerable populations, such as health care facilities, nursing homes and assisted living facilities, and jails, to be vigilant in monitoring for COVID-19.

Goal: 4,667 Tests per Week
Current: 33,731 Tests per Week (Oct. 13 – 19) 

Source: Metro Public Health Department

Hospital Capacity: Floor Beds

Access to floor beds is tracked to ensure the Nashville health care system has the capacity to manage both the existing case load and a potential surge. Nashville will continue to track and share information about the availability of hospital beds, ICU beds, ventilators, and personal protective equipment (PPE) to ensure that they are adequately available if cases surge, as modeled under a variety of assumptions.

Goal: 20% of Floor Bed Capacity Available 
Current: 16% of Floor Bed Capacity Available (As of 10/24 at 9:30 a.m.)

Source: Tennessee Healthcare Resource Tracking System

Hospital Capacity: ICU Beds

Access to intensive care unit, ICU, beds is tracked to ensure the Nashville health care system has the capacity to manage both the existing case load and a potential surge. Nashville will continue to track and share information about the availability of hospital beds, ICU beds, ventilators, and personal protective equipment (PPE) to ensure that they are adequately available if cases surge, as modeled under a variety of assumptions.

Goal: 20% of ICU Capacity Available
Current: 12% of ICU Capacity Available (As of 10/24 9:30 a.m.)

Source: Tennessee Healthcare Resource Tracking System

New Cases Per 100K Residents

Public health officials across the country are using the seven-day rolling average of new cases per 100,000 residents to compare the virus spread with other counties and states. Like the 14-Day New Case Trend, a sustained downward trend in cases is critical for Nashville to continue the Roadmap to Reopening. When this metric is 10 or under, the state of Tennessee allows nursing homes to open to visitors.

Goal: Less Than 10

Current: 27.4 (As of 10/24 9:30 a.m.)

Source: Metro Public Health Department

7 Day Positive Test Rate

The seven-day positive test rate shows the percent of positive test results from the past week. As more people are getting tested, this metric is a more accurate look at the spread of the virus and if there is adequate testing.

Goal: 10% or Below 
Current: 6.1% (As of 10/24 at 9:30 a.m.)

Source: Metro Public Health Department